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Alberto Fernández cumple un mes en el poder con la economía en pausa

El pasado 10 de diciembre, Alberto Fernández recibió una Argentina que volvía a irse a pique: con la economía en recesión por segundo año consecutivo, la inflación y la pobreza en alza y una deuda externa impagable.

En su primer mes como presidente, Fernández ha cerrado acuerdos con múltiples sectores por 180 días, una frágil pax económica con un ajuste fiscal que ha sido aplaudido por el Fondo Monetario Internacional y por el sector financiero, y que supone un alivio a corto plazo para los bolsillos más vacíos.

El mandatario también ha comenzado a trazar su camino en política exterior: tomó distancia del Grupo de Lima sin abandonar el bloque y dio refugio al expresidente boliviano Evo Morales, que hace campaña desde Buenos Aires para las elecciones de mayo.

Fernández ha logrado el apoyo parlamentario suficiente para arrancar con recortes que no han tenido demasiada oposición sindical. Las pensiones están congeladas por seis meses, uno de los mayores gastos de las arcas públicas, a cambio de una compensación para las jubilaciones más bajas. Del mismo modo, el Gobierno busca aplazar las negociaciones salariales colectivas hasta la segunda mitad de este año.

«El Gobierno ha anunciado medidas importantes que tienen como objetivo proteger a los más vulnerables, tratar de estabilizar la situación de inestabilidad que se dio en los últimos meses en la Argentina y todo en un contexto en el cual las cuentas fiscales no se vean afectadas», opinó el jueves el director del FMI para el Hemisferio Occidental, Alejandro Werner. «Se va moviendo en una dirección positiva», respondió durante una entrevista con CNN.

El equipo económico argentino, encabezado por Martín Guzmán, trabaja en la renegociación del pago de vencimientos de la deuda externa, entre los que destacan los correspondientes a los 45.000 millones de dólares desembolsados por el FMI durante la gestión de Mauricio Macri. Los expertos anticipan que Argentina, que tampoco crecerá en este 2020, no podrá cumplir con el esquema de pagos actual.

Las medidas de contención de gasto han ido unidas a subidas de impuestos y restricciones a la compra de divisas para cuidar las reservas. El Ejecutivo aumentó hasta un 27%, en el caso de la soja, el tributo a las exportaciones agropecuarias, la principal fuente de ingresos en dólares de Argentina. Los afectados respondieron con tímidas movilizaciones, muy inferiores a las que pusieron en jaque al Gobierno de Cristina Fernández en 2008.

La moneda oficial permanece estable frente al dólar, que se cambia a 63 pesos la unidad, pero los argentinos que quieren ahorrar en divisa extranjera o comprarlas para salir del país deben pagar un recargo del 30%. Los billetes de avión y los gastos con tarjeta de crédito en el exterior sufren el mismo gravamen, una medida que castiga a quienes tenían planeado viajar al extranjero este verano austral.

Plan contra el hambre

Fernández puso al ministro de Desarrollo Social, Daniel Arroyo, al frente del Plan Nacional Contra el Hambre. El Gobierno distribuirá cerca de dos millones de tarjetas alimentarias que permiten comprar alimentos específicos a los hogares más pobres del país. El resto de la población argentina debe afrontar un alza de cerca del 8% de la canasta básica tras vencer la exención del IVA aprobada el pasado agosto. Sin embargo, la actual Administración ha reflotado un programa del kirchnerismo que fija los precios de alrededor de 300 productos de consumo masivo, por ejemplo, leche, harina, aceite y arroz. También ha frenado aumentos inmediatos en las facturas de luz, gas y agua, así como en el transporte público y los combustibles.

La medidas de shock de este primer mes y la ausencia de protagonismo de la vicepresidenta Cristina Fernández de Kirchner han tranquilizado a los mercados, que habían respondido con inquietud al regreso del peronismo al poder en Argentina. No obstante, sus efectos sobre la economía se harán más evidentes a partir de marzo, cuando el país retome la plena actividad tras las vacaciones, y en especial en el segundo semestre, ya sin los parches que han dejado en pausa muchos aumentos.

En el plano exterior, Fernández arranca su mandato sin aliados en el Mercosur, dominado por gobiernos conservadores, en especial el brasileño de Jair Bolsonaro, y en medio de una región convulsa. El presidente argentino ha dejado de reconocer de facto al opositor Juan Guaidó como presidente interino de Venezuela, pero ha mostrado que no será tampoco un aliado incondicional de Nicolás Maduro, a quien criticó por su maniobra para recuperar poder en la Asamblea Nacional. Por el contrario, sí ha dado un fuerte respaldo al expresidente boliviano Evo Morales, asilado en Buenos Aires desde el 12 de diciembre, desde donde prepara la campaña política que permita a su partido, el Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) vencer en las elecciones presidenciales del próximo 3 de mayo.

Sin la misma relevancia pública, dada la preocupación central por la crítica situación económica, el Gobierno ha mostrado también un giro en políticas sociales acordes con la agenda progresista. La primera medida del ministro de Salud, Ginés González García, fue decretar un protocolo que regula el aborto no punible y Fernández ha anticipado que enviará al Parlamento una iniciativa para su legalización. En Seguridad, la ministra Sabina Frederic se ha distanciado de la mano dura de su predecesora al derogar los protocolos que daban más poder a la policía y ha anunciado que estudiará legalizar el consumo y producción de marihuana. Los sectores más conservadores se oponen con firmeza a cualquier avance en esta dirección.

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