EE.UU. vs Irán: 5 razones por las que la crisis entre los dos países aún no ha terminado
Por suerte, la crisis provocada por la muerte a manos de Estados Unidos del principal comandante iraní, Qasem Soleimani, el 3 de enero no se ha convertido en una guerra a gran escala.
En ese sentido, la tensión ha bajado.
Pero ninguno de los factores básicos que llevaron a estos dos países al borde de la guerra ha cambiado. He aquí por qué esta crisis está lejos de haber acabado.
1. La disminución de tensiones es temporal
Lo que algunos analistas ven como una reducción de la tensión entre Irán y EE.UU. no es nada que se le parezca.
Los líderes iraníes, profundamente conmocionados por el asesinato de Soleimani, hicieron lo que pudieron para contraatacar.
Irán quería responder atacando objetivos estadounidenses y dejando claro quién había sido el responsable. Por lo tanto, utilizó misiles disparados desde su propio territorio.
- Esmail Ghaani, el nuevo líder militar de Irán que promete vengar la muerte de Soleimani con «cuerpos de estadounidenses por todo Medio Oriente»
- Cómo fue la Operación Mártir Soleimani, el ataque con misiles que lanzó Irán contra bases de Estados Unidos en Irak
Pero había restricciones prácticas y políticas en sus acciones. Quería hacer algo rápido, (el ataque) lo había pillado desprevenido y no quería comenzar una guerra sin cuartel.
Este ajuste de cuentas, como han dejado en claro muchos portavoces iraníes, no está cerrado.
También se ha sugerido que la voluntad de Irán de admitir su responsabilidad por el derribo del avión de pasajeros ucraniano es otro esfuerzo por reducir las tensiones. Pero no es correcto.
La respuesta natural de Irán fue negar cualquier participación. Pero cuando los estadounidenses afirmaron que su inteligencia demostraba lo contrario, cuando los investigadores ucranianos encontraron evidencia de un ataque con misiles y los investigadores independientes demostraron la veracidad del video que mostraba a un avión siendo atacado, Irán no tuvo más remedio que cambiar de estrategia.
De hecho, apenas las excavadoras comenzaron a limpiar los restos del lugar del siniestro, quedó claro que Irán sabía exactamente lo que había sucedido. De haber habido alguna sospecha de que podía haber sido un accidente, las autoridades hubieran tenido motivos para dejar los escombros intactos.
La admisión de responsabilidad iraní estuvo más relacionada con sus problemas internos. Hace solo unos meses, hubo una ola de protestas contra la corrupción y una economía en colapso.
Miren cuán rápido han revivido las protestas. Esto se trata de limitar los daños dentro de casa, no de rebajar las tensiones con los estadounidenses.
2. EE.UU. sigue con la misma política
¿Por qué Estados Unidos mató a Soleimani e intentó atacar a un segundo alto cargo iraní en Yemen?
Washington alegó, tal vez por razones legales, que estaba actuando para prevenir uninminente y grave ataque contra los intereses estadounidenses.
Este argumento no ha convencido a muchos analistas ni a los críticos del presidente en Washington.
Es mucho más probable que los ataques hayan sido un intento de restablecer alguna línea clara de disuasión. A corto plazo, esto puede funcionar. Irán tendrá que calibrar en el futuro sus acciones con mucho cuidado.
Pero, al mismo tiempo que el presidente Donald Trump amenaza con devastar Irán, también da señales de que todavía quiere dejar Medio Oriente.
Lo ve como un problema ajeno. Esto inevitablemente socavará la fuerza de cualquier mensaje disuasorio que envíe.
Estados Unidos continuará paralizando la economía iraní. Pero no ha invitado a Teherán a la mesa de negociación para capitular. Por el contrario, ha envalentonado a Irán para que contraataque montando su propia campaña de presión máxima.
Estados Unidos quiere redoblar sus esfuerzos respecto a Teherán y reducir significativamente los recursos que despliega en la región.
Probablemente no pueda conseguir ambas cosas.
3.Las metas estratégicas de Irán no han variado
Puede que la economía de Irán se esté resintiendo y que muchos de sus ciudadanos se sientan cada vez más descontentos, pero se trata de un «régimen revolucionario».
No va a abandonar repentinamente el poder. Grupos como el Cuerpo de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica de Irán (CGRI) son demasiado fuertes. Su respuesta ha consistido en tomar medidas drásticas en casa y resistir la presión estadounidense, algo que se mantendrá.
El objetivo estratégico de Irán es expulsar a Estados Unidos de la región, al menos de Irak, y esto puede estar más cerca de darse que antes de la muerte de Soleimani.
Al menos desde la perspectiva de las autoridades iraníes, la política de Teherán ha tenido muchos éxitos notables. Salvó el régimen del presidente Bashar al Asad en Siria y le permitió abrir un nuevo frente contra Israel. Y tiene una influencia significativa en Irak.
Debido a las contradicciones en la política de Trump, los aliados estadounidenses en la región se sienten cada vez más solos.
Los sauditas han estado explorando la posibilidad de un diálogo con Teherán, Turquía sigue su propio camino y establece una nueva relación con Rusia. Solo el gobierno de Israel parece pensar que la muerte de Soleimani presagia un compromiso renovado de Trump con la región.
Puede que acabe decepcionado.
La disidencia interna y una economía en ruinas pueden empujar al CGRI a incrementar la presión sobre Estados Unidos con el tiempo. Acaba de sufrir dos golpes devastadores y estará buscando venganza.
4.La postura de Irak es contradictoria
El letrero que indica a las tropas estadounidenses por dónde salir de Irak se ve ahora más nítido y brillante que nunca.
El gobierno provisional de Irak está en crisis tras haber sufrido su propia ola de protesta popular. Muchos no están contentos con la presencia de Estados Unidos y la influencia iraní en el país.
Una votación parlamentaria no vinculante puso la retirada de las tropas estadounidenses firmemente en la agenda. Esto no significa que vayan a irse mañana, pero se requerirá de una diplomacia hábil para mantenerlas allí.
En cambio, Trump amenazó con congelar los fondos que el gobierno iraquí tiene en bancos estadounidenses si sus tropas son obligadas a retirarse.
La participación de EE.UU. en Irak es importante.
Cuando sus fuerzas y aliados se enfrentaron a los combatientes del autodenominado Estado Islámico (EI) en Irak, esto siempre fue visto como un despliegue a largo plazo.
Una vez que el califato de EI fuera destruido, se esperaba que las tropas estadounidenses se quedaran allí durante años.
En caso de ser expulsadas, se hará mucho más difícil contener cualquier resurgimiento de EI.
Pero asimismo, la presencia estadounidense que aún hay en el este de Siria se volverá insostenible, porque esta recibe en gran medida apoyo de las bases de EE.UU. en Irak.
El debate sobre la presencia de tropas de Washington recién comienza y es uno en el que, si Estados Unidos pierde, Irán probablemente gane.
5. El pacto nuclear peligra
Las raíces de esta última crisis se encuentran en mayo de 2018, cuando el gobierno de Trump dejó de lado el acuerdo nuclear con Irán.
Desde entonces, EE.UU. ha aplicado una presión máxima sobre la economía iraní y este país ha estado persiguiendo por su cuenta una campaña regional de presión al ir renunciando sucesivamente a varias de las restricciones impuestas por ese pacto.
Si el acuerdo no está muerto es porque lo único que lo mantiene vivo es que nadie además de Trump está dispuesto a verlo colapsar.
Pero a menos que algo cambie, entonces es el principio del fin.
El pacto importa. Antes del acuerdo, existía un riesgo muy real de guerra, con Israel (o tal vez Estados Unidos e Israel en tándem) contemplando la posibilidad de atacar la infraestructura nuclear de Irán.
Irán tratará de mantener a los demás signatarios de su lado durante el mayor tiempo posible.
Pero esta es una crisis enconada.
Parece que, a pesar de los esfuerzos europeos, no hay formade aliviar la presión económica sobre Teherán.
Con el tiempo, el acuerdo puede colapsar y, mientras tanto, Irán puede estar más cerca de acelerar el paso hacia la bomba.
Pero pase lo que pase con el acuerdo en sí, la política deTrump inevitablemente ha atraído a Estados Unidos de vuelta a Medio Oriente,en un momento en que la política de seguridad nacional de este país está tratando de alejarlo de allí.
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