Internacionales

La gran paradoja de las relaciones de Irán con América Latina

La reacción de América Latina a la crisis internacional entre Estados Unidos e Irán tiene dos extremos opuestos, desde Venezuela hasta Brasil.

En Venezuela, el presidente de la Asamblea nacional constituyente, Diosdado Cabello, visitó el martes la embajada iraní y leyó un mensaje que concluía así: «¡Viva Irán, vivan los pueblos libres, nosotros venceremos!».

«Tu muerte será vengada, camarada«, dijo allí mismo el diputado chavista Pedro Carreño al firmar el libro de condolencias de Quasem Soleimani, el general iraní cuya muerte en un ataque de EE.UU. en Irak disparó la tensión internacional este mes.

En cambio, el presidente brasileño, Jair Bolsonaro, se alineó con Washington.

«Nuestra posición es aliarse a cualquier país del mundo en el combate al terrorismo. Sabemos lo que en gran parte Irán representa para sus vecinos y para el mundo», dijo Bolsonaro en una entrevista con la TV Bandeirantes.

Pero detrás de estas posturas antagónicas hay otra realidad.

El Brasil del ultraderechista Bolsonaro es el gran socio comercial de Irán en América Latina, con un intercambio bilateral miles de veces superior en dólares al que la República Islámica tiene con su aliado socialista de Venezuela.

«Es paradójico», dice consultado al respecto Hussein Kalout, exsecretario especial para asuntos estratégicos de Brasil y actual investigador de la Universidad de Harvard en temas de Medio Oriente, a BBC Mundo.

Ese aparente contrasentido refleja, sin embargo, la forma en que Teherán ha separado sus intereses políticos y económicos en América Latina, sobre todo en los últimos años.

Las relaciones diplomáticas de Irán con países latinoamericanos datan de más de un siglo en algunos casos, pero tuvieron un giro importante con el cambio de milenio.

Aunque América Latina nunca ha sido prioridad para los iraníes, se volvió más atractiva para mitigar el creciente aislamiento internacional que le causó a Teherán el desarrollo de su programa nuclear.

Mientras fue presidente de Irán entre 2005 y 2013, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad viajó en promedio una vez por año a Latinoamérica, donde aumentó las embajadas e impulsó varios proyectos.

Eran tiempos en los que en la región predominaban gobiernos izquierdistas con los que Ahmadinejad desarrolló una sintonía especial.

Sin embargo, a medida que bajó la «marea rosa» de la izquierda latinoamericana y crecieron las sanciones internacionales a Teherán, quedó claro que para los iraníes existen al menos dos tipos de socios en la región.

Por un lado hay países enfrentados a EE.UU. como Venezuela, Nicaragua o Cuba, que criticaron el ataque a Soleimani, con los que Teherán tiene una mayor afinidad política pero vínculos económicos menores.

Viejos anuncios de inversiones iraníes —como en la construcción de un puerto de aguas profundas en Nicaragua— quedaron en la nada y el comercio bilateral de Irán con sus aliados regionales es bajo, incluso inferior al millón de dólares por año.

Según el Centro para el Desarrollo Internacional (CID por sus siglas en inglés) de Harvard, el intercambio comercial entre Venezuela e Irán fue de US$892.000 en 2016, último año del que dispone de cifras.

Por otro lado, países como Argentina, Brasil o Uruguay mantienen flujos comerciales muy superiores con Irán pese a tener gobiernos de distinto signo ideológico: US$451 millones, US$2.560 millones y US$164 millones respectivamente en 2017, de acuerdo al CID.

En los tres casos la balanza comercial es ampliamente favorable a los latinoamericanos.

El Brasil de Bolsonaro tuvo el año pasado un superávit de más de US$2.000 millones en el intercambio con Irán, uno de sus principales destinos de exportaciones agrícolas y de proteína animal en el mundo.

Por ser más complementarios para su economía, productos sudamericanos como la soja, el maíz o la carne resultan más atractivos para Irán que, por ejemplo, el petróleo venezolano.

Incluso el intercambio bilateral de la República Islámica con Chile, Colombia o México supera al que mantiene con sus aliados de Venezuela, Cuba o Nicaragua.

Pero, ¿puede variar todo esto con las tensiones entre EE.UU. e Irán?

El factor Trump

Kalout descarta que Irán vaya a sustituir a Brasil como principal socio comercial en América Latina apenas por declaraciones de Bolsonaro o su gobierno, a menos que se traduzcan en acciones ostensivas contra Teherán.

«Los iraníes tienen un modelo muy cartesiano de medir sus relaciones estratégicas: se acostumbraron en las últimas cuatro décadas a tratar con países cuya diplomacia es ambivalente, amigo y enemigo al mismo tiempo», dice el experto. «Saben jugar ese juego».

El propio Bolsonaro declaró el martes que «continuará» el comercio entre Brasil e Irán.

Muchos recuerdan que parte de la base de apoyo parlamentario de Bolsonaro proviene del sector rural que se beneficia de ese intercambio.

De hecho, Irán mantuvo e incluso aumentó sus compras a Argentina después que este país reclamara en 2007 la captura de cinco exfuncionarios iraníes por su presunto involucramiento en el atentado contra la mutual israelita AMIA, que dejó 85 muertos en 1994 en Buenos Aires.

Argentina se convirtió en julio en el primer país de América Latina en designar a Hezbolá —la organización libanesa chiíta respaldada por Irán, también responsabilizada por el ataque a la AMIA— como grupo «terrorista», algo que EE.UU. señaló como un logro tras años de esfuerzos diplomáticos.

Paraguay y Honduras hicieron lo mismo luego. Y el próximo podría ser Brasil.

Washington ha advertido en diferentes ocasiones sobre la presencia de Irán y Hezbolá en lugares de América Latina como la «triple frontera» entre Argentina, Brasil y Paraguay o en Venezuela.

Un funcionario sénior del Departamento de Estado de EE.UU. indicó que los iraníes «siguen jugando» en el Hemisferio Occidental y «no son actores constructivos», pero estimó que su influencia probablemente es estable y no ha repuntado recientemente. Derechos de autor de la imagen AFP Image caption Algunos anticipan que Donald Trump puede aumentar la presión de EE.UU. contra Irán en América Latina.

El enviado especial de EE.UU. para Venezuela, Elliott Abrams, sostuvo por su lado que «la presencia de Irán o de Hezbolá en Venezuela hasta la fecha no es muy grande».

«Es posible que el régimen decidiera tratar de traer iraníes y terroristas de Hezbolá a Venezuela, pero sería un error fatal», dijo Abrams en la Voz de América.

Farid Kahhat, un profesor de relaciones internacionales de la Pontifica Universidad Católica de Perú experto en temas de seguridad internacional y Medio Oriente, observa que desde el atentado de la AMIA «no hay casos de terrorismo en donde se haya implicado a Hezbolá» en la región.

Y señala que la sospecha de que en América Latina ese grupo está involucrado en «lavado de dinero o incluso narcotráfico parece tener más asidero que la acusación en materia de terrorismo».

A su juicio, es probable que el gobierno de Donald Trump en EE.UU. aumente las presiones para que América Latina enfríe sus vínculos con Teherán como parte de su disputa con la República Islámica, al igual que ya intentó frenar la influencia de China en la región.

«EE.UU. no lo había hecho cuestión de Estado por la relación económica entre América Latina e Irán», dice Kahhat a BBC Mundo. «Eso podría cambiar con Trump».

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